Jobless claims, productivity, retail numbers all relatively good

The economic news this morning was mostly good, with jobless claims down, productivity up and retail sales showing signs of recovery.

The weekly first-time jobless claims number -- an indicator of how many freshly laid-off workers are out there -- was the lowest it has been in 10 months.

But that number from the Labor Department, 512,000, though down 20,000 and better than the economists' forecast of 523,000, still probably isn't low enough to keep the unemployment rate from risiing. It was 9.8 percent for September and could hit 9.9 percent when October's rate is announced Friday.

There always will be new layoffs, but economists say the weekly claims will have to fall below 400,000 before unemployment will stabilize. Some economists say unemployment could even reach 10.5 percent sometime next year before heading back down.

Besides worries about the recovery dampening hiring, many companies are finding that they can wring more work out of the people they do still have. Productivity -- output per hour worked -- was up 9.5 percent in the third quarter, the Labor Department also reported today.

That's the sharpest increase in six years.

There also are signs that the employed, perhaps not so worried about losing their jobs as the economy picks up, are spending a little more: Retail sales were up for a second straight month in October.

The increases weren't robust, but at least they were increases, giving some hope that the holiday season won't be grim.

Costco Wholesale Corp.; TJX Cos., which operates T.J. Maxx and Marshalls, and Gap Inc., all reported solid gains for October. And luxury retails such as Saks Inc. and Nordstrom Inc. also showed some strength.

But there were drops, too: Children's Place Retail Stores, Wet Seal Inc. and Stage Stores Inc. all reported declines, as did Limited Brands Inc., which operates Victoria's Secret and Bath & Body Works.

The International Council of Shopping Centers-Goldman Sachs figures said sales at stores opened at least a year rose 2.1 percent, beating estimates for a 1 percent gain. That followed a 0.6 percent increase in September.